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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 9/28/2009 9:27:44 AM
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blessedinnyc
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quote:
ORIGINAL: tuckonline
That is not what Peter Schiff advocates....Please do your research before deafening the truth. If you would like to know what he advocates please let me know and I will explain it, but I wont bother if you do not want to hear it.
I'd like to think I've done a fair amount of research on some of the more outspoken hedge fund managers 'opinions. Here's a perfect example of Schiff's wacky views on the market:
http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/gold-hitting-5000-usd-in-next-couple-of.html
You can't have the dollar lose value AND have stocks lose value at the same time, according to the classical view of macroeconomics. If the dollar loses value, that's great news for exporters. A cheap dollar means the US gets more competitive and manufacturers relocate here. Bear in mind that in order for Schiff's views to be correct, there has to be a serious decline in real US GDP, which seems unlikely given the US's increasingly educated workforce and vast natural resources.
Schiff also claims that interest rates will spike up very rapidly, despite his view of a declining dollar. This is also inconsistent with the classical view of monetary policy and basic common sense:
http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/techticker-video-interview-interest.html
In particular, Schiff believes he's going to make a lot of money on Chinese equities when the Renminbi Yuan is depegged from the dollar and China's export-dependant economy will go to the moon when that happens, despite the fact that their economy will most likely experience a severe recession when nobody can afford their exports:
http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/renminbi-could-double-or-tripled-when.html
So yes, I have researched Schiff's views and, IMHO, his conclusions don't make a lot of sense. He sees a world of high interest rates, a weak dollar, no exports, and a weakened manufacturing sector. You simply can't have all of these things at the same time for very long in the US economy.
To simplify things, the vast majority of economists see the economy as a see-saw. Either manufacturing can be up on a relative basis or currency can be up. It's hard for another country's currency and equities to be up at the same time or down at the same time. Schiff believes that the US's currency and equities will be both down at the same time. In reality, he will probably only be right on one or the other and then claim victory on a "heads-I-win- tails-you-lose" bet.
< Message edited by blessedinnyc -- 9/28/2009 9:47:47 AM >
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 9/29/2009 2:35:10 AM
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IamLibertarian
Posts: 380
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Blessed, there are many views of economics, Classical being one of them. As I'm sure you know, Schiff does not agree with the Classical view, and neither did his father, Irwin Schiff.
The US stock market can lose value and so can the USD. If the dollar falls, then you are right, it is great news for exporters in our country. But let me ask you something - What does our country produce? The answer to that question is not much. We became such a superior nation during the 1800's and early 1900's because we manufactured almost EVERYTHING that we use domestically, and also exports abroad. Now fast forward to present times.....We are a Service Economy. We provide services. That is it. We do not produce much of anything.
Therefore, as our dollar loses value, the very, very few producers in our country will be exporting all those goods to other nations because they can pay more. What will we do? Imports are going to be way too expensive, and all the products manufactured here are going abroad. Prices will rise dramatically (supply and demand) while our dollar continues to lose value.
I could go on for hours with this, but I have a feeling it is not going to be worth my time. Though, I will add a few more comments for anyone else that reads this...
The reason interest rates are so low is because the Fed is keeping them artificially low (ever hear of Ben Bernanke?). Guess what happens when they do this? It is called Inflation. Sooner or later, if interest rates do not rise, hyperinflation could plague our nation, and it very well might.
Also, who are you referring to when you say nobody will be able to afford Chinas products? Have you ever thought that maybe the Chinese will begin to purchase their own products, instead of shipping them over to us?
quote:
So yes, I have researched Schiff's views and, IMHO, his conclusions don't make a lot of sense. He sees a world of high interest rates, a weak dollar, no exports, and a weakened manufacturing sector. You simply can't have all of these things at the same time for very long in the US economy.
EXACTLY!!!! THAT IS WHAT PETER SCHIFF IS TRYING TO GET ACROSS TO YOU!
If all of these things are happening in the US, which they are, then what is going to happen to our economy? Its not just going to continue progressing forever!!!!! You seem to think that the USD isnt losing value....have you looked at the dollar index lately? Also, compare our manufacturing industry from 30 years ago to our present manufacturing industry. Also, did you know that the US used to be the largest creditor nation in the world? Today, we are the biggest debtor nation...and most of our debts are held by China. Oh, and one more thing, what is our trade deficit looking like?
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 9/29/2009 10:55:52 AM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 2903
Joined: 10/12/2007
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quote:
ORIGINAL: tuckonline
The US stock market can lose value and so can the USD. If the dollar falls, then you are right, it is great news for exporters in our country. But let me ask you something - What does our country produce? The answer to that question is not much. We became such a superior nation during the 1800's and early 1900's because we manufactured almost EVERYTHING that we use domestically, and also exports abroad. Now fast forward to present times.....We are a Service Economy. We provide services. That is it. We do not produce much of anything.
The US Produces:
-1/3 of the world's supply of food.
-More high-quality college degrees than any other nation by a factor of two or three.
-25% of the world's GDP.
-Engineering, Accounting, Financial, Investment, and Technical expertise.
-Western culture.
-More lumber than any other nation, including Russia and Canada.
-15% of the world's cars.
-25% of the world's coal.
We also have about 1/4 of the world's liquid fresh water, 25% of the world's coal, and we have some of the world's largest proven uranium reserves.
In other words, the US is a diversified producer of food, commodities, manufacturing, and professional talent. Anybody can manufacture cars, but few countries, for example, have two dozen 300+ year old universities that basically own the charts on post-secondary education. No country produces as much food as the US does. No country has as much water. No country produces as much timber (and we do it pretty sustainably, unlike Russia!)
The US now also produces about as much as it consumes. US Consumers are now saving 5% of their incomes. This number has doubled in 12 months. This will provide more money for investments and a better cushion against crashes in the future. I don't know about you, but back in October, November, December, January, February, March, and April, I was buying. I was able to buy (and help stabilize the market), because I had money saved up. The trade deficit is decreasing, and a decoupling of the Yuan and the US Dollar would probably mean the US will resume its traditional role as an exporter.
quote:
Therefore, as our dollar loses value, the very, very few producers in our country will be exporting all those goods to other nations because they can pay more. What will we do? Imports are going to be way too expensive, and all the products manufactured here are going abroad. Prices will rise dramatically (supply and demand) while our dollar continues to lose value.
If that's the case, the GDP will increase along with inflation. Don't forget that we're a fundamentally resource producing nation. For the past 350 years, the US's geographical advantages in terms of resources have kept us a richer nation than Europe and Asia. I don't see anything that's really changed- other than oil, but if the world switches to nuclear or wind, we will become one of the world's largest energy producers again.
quote:
I could go on for hours with this, but I have a feeling it is not going to be worth my time. Though, I will add a few more comments for anyone else that reads this...
The reason interest rates are so low is because the Fed is keeping them artificially low (ever hear of Ben Bernanke?). Guess what happens when they do this? It is called Inflation. Sooner or later, if interest rates do not rise, hyperinflation could plague our nation, and it very well might.
That's absolutely possible. My point, however, is that the market has priced this in in long-term interest rates- which are about 4%. If we have an interest rate super-spike- Schiff predicts a much bigger spike than just 4%, the dollar will probably have to increase in value.
quote:
Also, who are you referring to when you say nobody will be able to afford Chinas products? Have you ever thought that maybe the Chinese will begin to purchase their own products, instead of shipping them over to us?
That's true, but in order for the Yuan to stay valuable, they have to stay net exporters. If Widgets cost $100K worth of Renminbi in Beijing but only cost $50 in New York, people will be moving as many widgets as they possibly can from New York to Beijing- and they'll need to buy dollars and sell Yuan in the process. Meanwhile, Chinese exporters will be having trouble selling $100K widgets in New York.
quote:
EXACTLY!!!! THAT IS WHAT PETER SCHIFF IS TRYING TO GET ACROSS TO YOU!
Yes, and given constant resources, Peter Schiff's scenario makes no sense on a longer-term or even intermediate-term basis.
quote:
If all of these things are happening in the US, which they are, then what is going to happen to our economy? Its not just going to continue progressing forever!!!!! You seem to think that the USD isnt losing value....have you looked at the dollar index lately?
The dollar is stronger than it was in 2008. When there is a market crash, USD tends to gain value.
quote:
Also, compare our manufacturing industry from 30 years ago to our present manufacturing industry.
It's actually bigger on an inflation-indexed basis than it was 30 years ago.
quote:
Also, did you know that the US used to be the largest creditor nation in the world? Today, we are the biggest debtor nation...and most of our debts are held by China. Oh, and one more thing, what is our trade deficit looking like?
The same thing happened to Great Britain after WWII.
My view is this: the US is wealthy because of its education and its geography and renewable natural resources. Barring a nuclear war or an eruption of the supervolcano under Yellowstone, it's likely that the US will largely maintain its spot in the country rankings of GDP per capita in 50 years.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 9/29/2009 7:32:00 PM
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prophet
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quote:
The dollar is stronger than it was in 2008. When there is a market crash, USD tends to gain value.
USDX End 08 88.0
Presently 77
Look at the charts, In the last 5 months, it has come from 89 to 77......
When you print trillions theres only ONE way to go.
quote:
The same thing happened to Great Britain after WWII.
Britain was ruler of the world before that. Where is it now?
If US is so rich, whys un employment so high?  Dont believe those 9.5% figures either!
More like 16%!
Compare with Singapore. 3% unemployment. 90% of population live in affordable flats. 8 years of reserves.
Thats rich!
_____________________________
Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 9/29/2009 9:27:08 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 2903
Joined: 10/12/2007
From: NYC by way of Chicago
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quote:
ORIGINAL: prophet
quote:
The dollar is stronger than it was in 2008. When there is a market crash, USD tends to gain value.
USDX End 08 88.0
Presently 77
Look at the charts, In the last 5 months, it has come from 89 to 77......
Yet if you look at them over 13-14 months, we're in better shape than we were earlier. Meanwhile, we've been experiencing deflation at the same time.
quote:
Britain was ruler of the world before that. Where is it now?
It's standard of living is still basically where it was 85 years ago in the league tables today. the UK was somewhere around the second richest country in the world after WWI; the same would be true today if there were still only 15 developed countries.
quote:
If US is so rich, whys un employment so high? Dont believe those 9.5% figures either!
More like 16%!
Depends on how you measure it. In any case, the market doesn't seem to care except for retail, consumer credit, and maybe housing.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/1/2009 12:28:37 AM
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IamLibertarian
Posts: 380
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Blessed, you sound like you are an intelligent person, capable of understanding much, but the facts you are acquiring to make your assumptions are way off base.
I am way too tried to address everything, but the two things that caught my attention were you saying that we are in a deflationary period right now, and two, that when the world is in a recession (like it is now) that the USD gains value.
First of all, we are not anywhere near a deflationary period. Where have you been the past year? two years? five years? Our budget deficit is over 8 Trillion dollars right now! We keep printing more and more and more money. That is called inflation. Where do you think we got the money to bail out Wall Street? We didn't have in in Savings, because Americans have a negative savings rate. We got it from China and from the Fed (who just printed money, which means inflation).
Also, you said when we are in a recessionary period the USD gains value. I will agree with you that this USED to be true. Do you know why? The reason is because the rest of the world (mainly China) would buy USD when they were in a recession, because everybody in the world saw the USD as an inflation hedge. The problem with that now is that the USD is one of the most inflated currencies in the world, and the world can now see that! Why do you think gold has been gaining so much value and the dollar losing it? It is because China is buying up the worlds gold instead of buying USD. In fact, the Chinese Gov't is looking for a new currency to use as their Reserve Currency (instead of the current USD). And guess what's going to happen once they find one? The Chinese are going to send all those trillions of dollars back into our country (causing hyper inflation here).
Anyways, that is my econ lesson for the day. I am way tired and cannot address everything 100% right now.
***Also, you said that in order for the Yuan to stay valuable, China has to maintain their net exports. Is there a double standard that I am not familiar with? Does America not have to live up to this same standard? Will the USD stay valuable no matter what we do? Just a little something to think about. Maybe you should check our net exports?
Also  Do you know how much our gov't spends on subsidies on our agricultural industry? It is absurd amounts of money. This is because we cannot compete with other nations and so our government essentially pays farmers (with our money, or borrowed money) to sell the food to us at a lower price. Does that make economic sense?
And the fact that you say we produce financial, accounting, and investment expertise made me laugh a little. Yes, we have some intelligent individuals in this country, but unfortunately they are not the ones making the economic decisions for our country. If they really had that much expertise, we would not be in this financial ruin that we are currently in  . Maybe they should have listened to Schiff instead of ridiculing him on every media outlet he appeared on?
< Message edited by tuckonline -- 10/1/2009 12:41:38 AM >
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/1/2009 1:51:55 AM
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Ps103
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Couple of quick questions:
Tuck: do you have a degree, and if yes, in what field?
Blessed: do you have a degree, and if yes, in what field?
Thanks!
_____________________________
Fasten your seatbelts...it's going to be a bumpy night.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/1/2009 11:37:28 AM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 2903
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
Blessed: do you have a degree, and if yes, in what field?
Thanks!
Computer Science, but I graduated three courses from a double-major in finance. My current work is in Credit Analytics & Pricing.
However, I will be the first to admit that hundreds of thousands of Finance, Econ, and Applied Math graduates, MSs, and PhDs (including Peter Schiff) all turned out to be incorrect a year ago.
< Message edited by blessedinnyc -- 10/1/2009 11:44:15 AM >
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/1/2009 12:03:40 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 2903
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quote:
ORIGINAL: tuckonline
First of all, we are not anywhere near a deflationary period. Where have you been the past year? two years? five years? Our budget deficit is over 8 Trillion dollars right now! We keep printing more and more and more money. That is called inflation. Where do you think we got the money to bail out Wall Street? We didn't have in in Savings, because Americans have a negative savings rate. We got it from China and from the Fed (who just printed money, which means inflation).
This is small peanuts compared to Vietnam, on a relative basis. The 1970s saw a spate of inflation, but if you entered the market in 1974, you made out like a bandit- even if you sold in 1983.
quote:
Also, you said when we are in a recessionary period the USD gains value. I will agree with you that this USED to be true.
One thing I have learned (especially after surviving last year), is to never listen to, "BUT IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME."
quote:
Do you know why? The reason is because the rest of the world (mainly China) would buy USD when they were in a recession, because everybody in the world saw the USD as an inflation hedge.
Really? Explain the crash of 1974 after the US had DEFAULTED on the gold standard and why inflation decreased then?
quote:
The problem with that now is that the USD is one of the most inflated currencies in the world, and the world can now see that! Why do you think gold has been gaining so much value and the dollar losing it? It is because China is buying up the worlds gold instead of buying USD. In fact, the Chinese Gov't is looking for a new currency to use as their Reserve Currency (instead of the current USD). And guess what's going to happen once they find one? The Chinese are going to send all those trillions of dollars back into our country (causing hyper inflation here).
Again, we're in no worse shape than we were in the '70s; if I tried to compare our current situation to a Peter Schiff-like person from 35 years ago, he would laugh and say the problems of the '70s were ten times worse. The federal government hasn't defaulted, and we haven't just gotten out of a war that was costing 10% of the GDP.
quote:
***Also, you said that in order for the Yuan to stay valuable, China has to maintain their net exports. Is there a double standard that I am not familiar with? Does America not have to live up to this same standard? Will the USD stay valuable no matter what we do? Just a little something to think about. Maybe you should check our net exports?
No, I said that for China to maintain their net exports, the Yuan has to stay cheap, in the same way that for SC Johnson to maintain their Scrubbing Bubbles production, they can't double the price. If they decouple the Yuan, China's unemployment will double. You are saying that the Yuan will get expensive; I am saying that if that happens, China won't be able to export as much and the Yuan will eventually lose value. Think of it as someone jumping into a pool- there's a whole bunch of waves at first, but things eventually at a new equilibrium that's not very far at all from the previous water level.
quote:
Also Do you know how much our gov't spends on subsidies on our agricultural industry? It is absurd amounts of money. This is because we cannot compete with other nations and so our government essentially pays farmers (with our money, or borrowed money) to sell the food to us at a lower price. Does that make economic sense?
No, this is because we don't want agribusiness to run out the remaining middle-class farms. The US actually has one of the most efficient and mechanized (as well as capital-intensive) farming industries in the world, and somehow, family farmers who own 160 acres have to compete with that. Most of the subsidies you reference top out after a certain number of acres or subsidy per entity.
quote:
And the fact that you say we produce financial, accounting, and investment expertise made me laugh a little. Yes, we have some intelligent individuals in this country, but unfortunately they are not the ones making the economic decisions for our country. If they really had that much expertise, we would not be in this financial ruin that we are currently in . Maybe they should have listened to Schiff instead of ridiculing him on every media outlet he appeared on?
Ironically, we're doing better than most countries. Interesting how the crisis started here, but everyone wanted dollars after the crisis and the DJIA has recovered to 90% of September '08 levels.
All in all, it looks like the US is in much better shape than it was a year ago relative to China, Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. We're in a cyclical bear market, so I'm not enthusiastic about the stock market, but I think it will do better over the next ten years than commodities.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/1/2009 5:23:34 PM
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Ps103
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Thanks, Blessed!
Tuck, how 'bout you?
Aside to Prophet: I am not getting my usual birthday Krugerrand because the price is too high right now. Now is *not* the time to buy, but a good time to sell.
_____________________________
Fasten your seatbelts...it's going to be a bumpy night.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/1/2009 7:42:27 PM
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prophet
Posts: 689
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quote:
ORIGINAL: tuckonline
Also, you said when we are in a recessionary period the USD gains value. I will agree with you that this USED to be true. Do you know why? The reason is because the rest of the world (mainly China) would buy USD when they were in a recession, because everybody in the world saw the USD as an inflation hedge. The problem with that now is that the USD is one of the most inflated currencies in the world, and the world can now see that! Why do you think gold has been gaining so much value and the dollar losing it? It is because China is buying up the worlds gold instead of buying USD. In fact, the Chinese Gov't is looking for a new currency to use as their Reserve Currency (instead of the current USD). And guess what's going to happen once they find one? The Chinese are going to send all those trillions of dollars back into our country (causing hyper inflation here).
China has offered to buy World Banks 400t and offered to take over the whole lot of 2,700t..... 
_____________________________
Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/1/2009 7:49:02 PM
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prophet
Posts: 689
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
Aside to Prophet: I am not getting my usual birthday Krugerrand because the price is too high right now. Now is *not* the time to buy, but a good time to sell.
Someone told me that gold at $750 was too high years ago. He bought gold at $450 on my recomemndation Sold at $550. Never went back in.
Now is not the time to buy or sell........its also never the worse time to buy. 
i found that out in the last 7 yaers....never a better time to buy or sell gold.
i have noit sold a single ounce since i first bought in 2002......
_____________________________
Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/1/2009 9:52:55 PM
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Ps103
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If I had bought it in 2002 (other than some earrings that were sold by weight) I would be mighty happy now, too.
But right now I am not in the market to buy it, or even to whine to Himself when I do not receive it as a gift.
I am very happy for you that you got what I hope is a big pile at a good price, though.
_____________________________
Fasten your seatbelts...it's going to be a bumpy night.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/6/2009 9:16:12 PM
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prophet
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Got Gold?
Gold surges, hits new all-time high of $1,045
By SARA LEPRO (AP) – 2 hours ago
NEW YORK — Gold prices surged to a new high Tuesday as investors sought a safe harbor from a falling dollar and inflation.
Gold for December delivery rose to as high as $1,045 an ounce, surpassing a previous intraday high of $1,033.90 logged in March 2008, just days after Bear Stearns Cos. collapsed.
Gold also had a record high closing price, finishing the day at $1,039.70 an ounce, up $21.90, or 2.2 percent. Some analysts see gold rising to $1,100 in the coming days.
Gold's advance was stoked by a tumbling dollar, which hit a 14-month low against the Australian currency after Australia became the first major country to raise interest rates since the onset of the financial crisis.
_____________________________
Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/8/2009 7:31:55 PM
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prophet
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Oil prices bounce, new gold record
Thursday, 8 October 2009 16:55
Oil price rose this evening, supported by better than expected economic data and a weaker US dollar. US crude rose $2.03 to $71.60 a barrel, while London Brent climbed $2.21 to $69.41.
Aluminium producer Alcoa posted a surprise profit while major US retailers reported a pick-up in September sales, lifting hopes for an economic recovery. Unemployment claims also dropped to a nine-month low last week, the US Labor Department said.
The dollar fell broadly against a basket of currencies as firmer equity markets fuelled demand for riskier assets. A weaker dollar supports oil because it makes commodities priced in the currency cheaper for those holding alternative currencies.
AdvertisementThe gains in crude oil futures reversed a drop of almost 2% in the previous session after US government data showed a larger than expected rise in petrol and distillate stocks last week, fanning doubts over the pace of fuel demand recovery in the world's largest energy consumer.
Meanwhile, gold prices hit yet another record high point of $1,058.48 an ounce in London this morning.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1008/oil.html
_____________________________
Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/12/2009 12:10:54 AM
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IamLibertarian
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quote:
Tuck: do you have a degree, and if yes, in what field?
Working on it, 3rd year Econ major =)
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 10/12/2009 3:34:26 PM
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blessedinnyc
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ariella...
How about copper?
Anyone know anything about gold IRAs? Is there such a thing?
Copper's an inflation-resistant investment, but it's also a cyclical commodity. Copper prices crashed this spring when the economy shut down. It's going to behave more like wood or oil than a precious metal.
A number of mutual fund families (that you may have your IRA at) offer "precious metals" or "mining and metals" funds. These would probably have a lot of gold and silver miners in them, but would likely have exposure to other metals as well.
Perhaps for many investors, precious metals would be a good compromise between the gold bugs and traditional investors- this is assuming that you're not worried about sovereign risk. (IE: The US becoming communist or descending into anarchy.)
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 11/3/2009 8:10:37 PM
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prophet
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I wonder what JPM's margin call is going to be today. ... Ring Ring " Tim we got a little problem over here.... can you give us a call back?"Shocking Bank Participation ReportAfter a three-day delay, the Bank Participation Report (BPR) forOctober was released by the CFTC today. The report, for positions heldby commercial banks (foreign and domestic) as of October 6, covers allcommodities regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.http://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/deaoct09f.htm It is the companionmonthly report to the Commitment of Traders Report (COT), which isissued weekly. The new BPR indicates that the largest one or two USbanks dramatically increased their short positions in COMEX gold andsilver in the reporting month.For silver, in particular, the increase was shocking. The largest USbank (thought to be JPMorgan), or banks, increased its silver shortposition by more than 28%, or by 8,487 contracts to an all-time recordof 38,375 contracts. Expressed in equivalent ounces, the US bank(s)increased its silver futures short position by 42,435,000 ounces to191,875,000 ounces. With a short position of almost 192 millionounces, JPMorgan appears to be short 29% of the annual world mineproduction of silver (660 million oz). Never in history has one (ortwo) entity held a more concentrated position, long or short, in anycommodity of finite supply.In gold, there was also a dramatic increase in the short position ofone or two US banks to the second highest short position on record.The one or two US banks increased their gold short position by morethan 41,000 contracts to 116,790 contracts. Foreign banks were alsonotable shorts. It is clear that the big short has not been pulling inits short position on the rally in gold and silver prices.A while back, there was evidence that JPMorgan was retreating from themarket, and I speculated on that development. I said I would follow upon my speculation as continuing data rolled in. With the latest BPR, Ican state now that I was wrong about them moving to cover theirshorts. The data reveals that they did close out many of their goldshort positions a month or two ago, at prices around the $950 level,but reinstituted those shorts on the price rally. They never did closeout silver shorts back then, but did greatly add to their silver shortposition on the current rally. The net result is that JPMorgan coveredand replaced a big chunk of its gold short position and added to itssilver short position at higher and more advantageous prices to them.I might say good for them, but I’d be lying.As offensive as I find JPMorgan’s dealings in silver and gold, I wouldimagine there might be someone else even more offended. I speak of thechairman of the CFTC, Gary Gensler. What JPM did in the past month iscontrary to everything that Chairman Gensler has spoken out againstsince he has been in office. The current and forever silverinvestigation came as a direct result of the Bank Participation Reportof August 2008 and my urgings for readers to write into theCommission. This new BPR is much worse than that one. JPMorgan is nowshort almost 30% of world silver production. This at a time whenmining companies are retreating from hedging their production.Chairman Gensler must know this is wrong. He is too smart not to know.He must know that the price of silver and gold would have been muchhigher than what they are now, if it were not for JPMorgan’sconcentrated and excessive short-selling. In my estimation, ifJPMorgan did not short sell more than 8,000 contracts, or 40 millionounces, silver would have been over $30 an ounce right now.JPMorgan’s concentrated and uneconomic silver short position hasplaced the market at risk. I am aware on no legitimate reason why thisposition is allowed to exist. It undermines the credibility and lawfulfunctioning of our markets. It is nothing short of an outrage. Itbothers me greatly to have to make these accusations of manipulation.If there is a good explanation for why this is not the crime inprogress that it appears to be, it is time for tthe Commission to offerthat explanation. Enough is enough.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 11/9/2009 7:01:02 PM
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prophet
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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold futures rose sharply Monday to extend their record highs as the U.S. dollar weakened, but then participants began booking profits, paring the metal's gains.
Thinly traded nearby November gold gained $5.70 to its highest-ever settlement at $1,100.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Most-active December gold also rose $5.70 to settle at $1,101.40.
In electronic activity before the New York pit session opened, Comex December gold hit a most-active record of $1,111.70. Nearby November gold hit $1,109.30, a front-month Comex record. Spot gold also hit a fresh all-time peak of $1,111.15.
Support from a weaker U.S. dollar kept gold prices near those levels for some of the day as stronger equities and higher oil prices also boosted the metal amid strengthening risk appetite.
But as momentum tripped pre-placed buy orders in U.S. equities, traders began to take some profits from their gains in gold and put the money into the stock market, said Michael Gross, broker and futures analyst with OptionSellers.com.
Profit-taking may also have been occurring as traders prepare for the upcoming U.S. Thanksgiving holiday season, said Sterling Smith, market analyst with Country Hedging.
The dollar slipped Monday as investors' appetite for risk got a boost from the G-20 meeting in Scotland, where finance ministers gave no indication of unwinding the stimulus programs in place to lift the global economy. In recent trading, the ICE Futures U.S. dollar index was down 0.58 point at 75.082.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091109-716391.html
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 11/11/2009 6:35:24 PM
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prophet
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US gold hits record high, near $1,120 an ounce
Wed Nov 11, 2009 2:48pm EST Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page[-] Text [+]
More News
US gold above $1,100/oz; new record on dollar drop
Monday, 9 Nov 2009 11:12am EST
US gold rises on economic optimism, eyes $1,100/oz
Thursday, 5 Nov 2009 02:59pm EST
US gold hits record on dollar drop, India purchase
Wednesday, 4 Nov 2009 02:09pm EST
US gold hits fresh record highs on dollar weakness
Wednesday, 4 Nov 2009 11:15am EST
US gold hits record high $1,088.50/oz on IMF sale
Tuesday, 3 Nov 2009 04:00pm EST Market News
Market gains on homebuilder forecast, China data
Dollar hits 15-month low; sterling falls sharply
Gold rises towards $1,120/oz on strong sentiment
More Business & Investing News... NEW YORK, Nov 11 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures rose toward
$1,120 an ounce on Wednesday near a record high set earlier in
the session, boosted by a dollar decline and strong investment
demand due to renewed interest by central banks toward
bullion. For the latest detailed report, click on [GOL/]. GOLD * COMEX December gold GCZ9 settles up $12.10, or 1.1
percent, at $1,114.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. * Range spanned $1,105.60 to $1,119.10 -- an all-time
high. * Gold, equities and other commodities rise sharply as the
dollar fell to a 15-month low against major currencies.
http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN1137705120091111
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 11/13/2009 6:51:51 PM
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prophet
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http://www.zamnet.zm/newsys/news/vie...&id=1258094354
Bank of Zambia urged to stock gold
13 Nov 2009
Zambia is seriously considering buying gold from IMF by using its relatively high international reserves, according to International media.
The Bank of Zambia (BoZ) has been urged to consider using the high international reserves that Zambia has accumulated to buy gold as a way of diversifying from the United States dollar which is depreciating.
BoZ governor Caleb Fundanga said at a quarterly Press briefing on Tuesday that the rise in international reserves to more than $1,788 million as at the end of September was the highest the country has achieved in 38 years.
Analysts however said the reserves could count to nothing because of the rate at which the US currency was depreciating, and countries like India, Sri Lanka, China and Russia had realised that it was better to stock gold than the inflationary-troubled dollar.
High reserves mean nothing with a falling and inflation hit US dollar, they said.
India last week used its reserves to buy IMF gold and even Sri Lanka is shifting a good portion of their reserves into gold and are set to buy IMF gold, including Russia and China,” they added.
The international reserves in dollar terms could become valueless should the dollar continue to depreciate. Countries are moving to gold whose price is at record high levels as nations dump the dollar.
Stocking gold is a way of diversifying from the risk a US dollar meltdown so as to preserve value of the international reserves as gold.
Even Malawi and Congo have some gold reserves, Zambia have none. Even poor Sri Lanka is buying gold, they added.
Zambia accumulated the international reserves the gross international reserves increased to $1,788.9 million in September 2009 from $ 1, 171.17 in June 2009, after the country received more than US$600 million from the IMF under the special drawing rights.
As a result, international reserves are expected to rise to about five months of import cover by the end of 2009.
On the appreciation of Zambia’s currency, the Kwacha against major international currencies, there was need for BoZ to examine whether it was a case of local currency drying up as a result of its being used in neighbouring countries like Zimbabwe, Malawi, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
The Kwacha has appreciated by 7.7 per cent during the third quarter, which was the highest rate since the beginning of the year.
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RE: Anyone investing in Silver? - 11/13/2009 7:02:47 PM
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prophet
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NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - New York gold futures ended
higher on a dollar drop Friday, and a strong finish above
$1,100 an ounce driven by currency hedge demand and central
bank interest should support the market next week, traders
said.
For the latest detailed report, click on [GOL/].
GOLD
* COMEX December gold GCZ9 climbed $10.10 to settle at
$1,116.70 an ounce at on the NYMEX.
* Range spanned from $1,101.20 to $1,117.40. December hit
an all-time high $1,123.40 on Thursday.
* A lower dollar supports gold. The greenback dropped
broadly after data showed U.S. trade deficit widened.
* Gold initially lacked a clear direction as dollar briefly
pared losses after disappointing U.S. consumer sentiment data.
* A Friday close above key technical level $1,100 should
indicate buying interest - Adam Klopfenstein at Lind-Waldock.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1347281020091113
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