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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/7/2009 2:45:45 PM
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solo_soprano23
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From: I'm a Southern girl
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My mom and I always talk about how some poorer families that we know have a lot of kids, and how the "wealthier" families have fewer. I know in my boyfriend's country, it's still about having kids to have farmhands in a sense, but they lived in worse than destitution I think. Now the kids that have grown up are wealthier and have maybe 1-4 kids each. My ancestors were that way... the slaves and poor had more than ten kids each, then when the kids grew up and weren't as poor, they didn't have a dozen kids. I think it's just one of those things that happens. I know for a fact though, sometimes it's about provision. Many of my boyfriend's siblings, and he himself, never had shoes and many times didn't have food; he never finished school. I think at times, we think about wanting to be able to take care of what we have. I think we all know people who say that they can take care of two kids, but not twenty-five.
< Message edited by solo_soprano23 -- 11/7/2009 2:51:55 PM >
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/7/2009 2:55:31 PM
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Sideways
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I think there will always be groups/families who are well educated, have access to birth control and still choose to have more then 4 kids. I don't view 3 or 4 kids as a large family, myself. But overall, I agree that ZPG will tend to happen in industrialized countries with decent medical care and access to birth control. The area where I live is reasonably affluent and very kid friendly. There's plenty of folks in the 1-4 child range, and a few that have 5 kids, but above that is more rare. There are also plenty of older adults who have no children.
So, I don't see where any government coercion would be necessary for ZPG.
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/7/2009 3:57:07 PM
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Sideways
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Maggie, I hope you know I do respect and appreciate you, right? If I've hurt your feelings, I do apologize. I've never thought you were crazy or stupid.
I don't see ZPG as a goal, I see it as a by product of giving women birth control choice and availability. It's already happening in many countries without any government laws. Many European countries are actively encouraging families to have a 3rd child, and they still have zero or negative population growth. ETA: looks like we cross posted.
And like we've been saying, the industrialized countries have the worst pollution, so obviously there's something else going on here. I do admit that one reason I dislike the Republican Party is their resistance to government measures that would try to scale back the damage done to the Earth by businesses, all in the name of economy. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've always seen Republicans as being more concerned about the dollar then about pollutants in our air and water supply.
< Message edited by Sideways -- 11/7/2009 4:03:13 PM >
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/7/2009 4:09:03 PM
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Sideways
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quote:
ORIGINAL: 3cappuccinosmom
quote:
Japan, Korea and most European countries have negative growth rates. Again, this is not due to laws or enforcement, but it apparently seems to be a natural consequence of industrialization and the acceptance and availability of birth control.
Interestingly, the governments of many of these countries seem to have realized that this is not necessarily a wonderful thing for their nation. 
Ok, so previously you'd said that ZPG couldn't happen without government coercion, and I think we can agree that this isn't true. Should the government be trying to promote positive population growth or just give women the choice to use birth control and stay out?
I really think population growth is a red herring that gets everyone all riled up. The real issues have to deal with energy sources, what we allow to be dumped into our air and water, better technologies to allow humans to use less energy and... encouraging folks to live more simply.. a policy I do strongly support. 
_____________________________
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/7/2009 6:09:30 PM
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huangshan
Posts: 2308
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Sideways
I do admit that one reason I dislike the Republican Party is their resistance to government measures that would try to scale back the damage done to the Earth by businesses, all in the name of economy. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've always seen Republicans as being more concerned about the dollar then about pollutants in our air and water supply.
It's also problematic when Republicans reject market-oriented measures like cap-and-trade. They reject government regulation, and they reject market-based solutions, it's just nihilistic sometimes.
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/7/2009 10:13:10 PM
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3cappuccinosmom
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quote:
Ok, so previously you'd said that ZPG couldn't happen without government coercion,
I am talking about world-wide, standardized ZPG. If population limitation is important to the environment (which I don't believe), it would have to be world-wide limitation, not just pockets of smart rich people not having kids.
If a person believes that world-wide ZPG is necessary for the survival of the earth (and that is not a radical fringe belief, but a very common one), governmental control will eventually be necessary to make that happen. Otherwise, human beings have this strange tendency to reproduce (I can't imagine why  ), with only isolated pockets of non-reproducing populations.
Individual countries may hit ZPG on their own but it won't happen worldwide without some level of manipulation or coercion. And not all countries that have severely limited birth rates managed that without government control. I'm sure you can figure out the one with the most egregious population-control human rights violations that I'm thinking of right now. Historically, as well, many population "limitation" programs are known to have used either manipulation (paying people to be sterilized, paying people to recruit sterilization patients), deception (not getting true informed consent prior to procedures), or force in order to be in any way effective. They weren't effective by simply offering birth control or sterilization, or educating people, because too many people just weren't interested. Too many people wanted to have children, and then more children. This happened in India and Peru, off the top of my head, I'm sure I could come up with more. At the time, the violations of rights were considered more important than controlling populations, so those programs ultimately were condemned, but the atmosphere is changing and I am not at all convinced that such programs would be so rigorously condemned in the future.
quote:
I really think population growth is a red herring that gets everyone all riled up. The real issues have to deal with energy sources, what we allow to be dumped into our air and water, better technologies to allow humans to use less energy and... encouraging folks to live more simply.. a policy I do strongly support.
Me too.  It's a red herring on *both* sides.
My personal opinion is that it's very sad when entire nations commit suicide by not having kids, but oh well, that's their choice. Plenty of other people willing and waiting to live on that land and continue to reproduce. <shrug> However, I think it is very, very wrong to assume or insist that every population who has access to birth control and has education about it would choose to use that information the way Westerners do. Even worse to assume that the Western "ideal family" is the best one, environmentally or otherwise. If a particular culture sets 4 or 5 children as the ideal, they may use birth control to avoid having 12 children and be happy to do so, but they will still be reproducing way above replacement level. Without either overpowering their culture or using coercion, those cultures would not be likely to hit ZPG.
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/7/2009 10:22:37 PM
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huangshan
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quote:
ORIGINAL: 3cappuccinosmom
My personal opinion is that it's very sad when entire nations commit suicide by not having kids, but oh well, that's their choice.
How is that "a nation committing suicide"? If Americans start having fewer kids, does that mean America is committing suicide? Is China's 1-Child Policy indicative of China committing suicide?
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/7/2009 10:24:54 PM
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huangshan
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quote:
ORIGINAL: 3cappuccinosmom
quote:
Ok, so previously you'd said that ZPG couldn't happen without government coercion,
I am talking about world-wide, standardized ZPG.
Is this the "mainstream idea" you're talking about?
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/8/2009 1:19:11 AM
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huangshan
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quote:
ORIGINAL: 3cappuccinosmom
quote:
How is that "a nation committing suicide"? If Americans start having fewer kids, does that mean America is committing suicide? Is China's 1-Child Policy indicative of China committing suicide?
China certainly has it's issues resultant from the one-child policy.
A nation which continues a decline in birth rates will eventually reach a point of no return. It cannot remain as is once that happens.
...and immigration...?
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/8/2009 7:47:44 AM
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Sideways
Posts: 3368
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That's a good point. Some countries may decline in population while others grow, and so the population centers shift around a little bit. America's numbers continue to grow through immigration, which I think is just fine (legal immigration of course). Someone does not have to be born in America to be a "real" American.
I agree that China's 1-child policy has had some disastrous effects. I still disagree that world-wide ZPG will take government coercion. I just see that as industrialize and offer easy birth control, the birth rates will decline. That's pretty much been the case world wide. Now, will some countries see 3 or 4 kids as the "ideal"? Maybe. I don't see ZPG as a goal, but declining birth rates as a by product of other measures.
I do think that even countries that don't have government coercion but do have a strong preference for males are also seeing dangerous imbalances in their young male and female numbers, like India. India doesn't have any government policies, but they have an imbalance of males and females just as bad as China.
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/8/2009 9:39:25 AM
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3cappuccinosmom
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quote:
...and immigration...?
And when you've convinced the immigrants that only the poor and stupid have big families? 
I have no problem with immigration. Actually, I mentioned earlier on that the cultures who die out will have plenty of people waiting to repopulate that land. Practically and emotionally, it doesn't matter to me at all. Philosopically, I do think it is sad when human beings decide they're not worth replacing themselves. <shrug> Personally, though, I'm not really going to lose sleep over Spain eventually becoming an extension of North Africa. I love African immigrants. I even married one. More power to 'em.
And that is why you cannot have world-wide ZPG without coercion. Not everybody, including not every smart or educated or wealthy person, is interested in a one- or two-child family. Just in the last couple of years I've seen multiple articles expressing concern over the East Coast elite shifting to an attitude of "three is the new two", or even having 4 kids. <gasp> Oh, the horror! They should know better!
I'm not saying people are currently advocating coercion (because it truly is a silly thing to advocate, and I think most reasonable people know that). I'm saying it's the logical end of believing that world-wide ZPG is necessary to save the environment. If you think ZPG is a cute idea for your family but ultimately unimportant to saving the environment, I'm not talking about you, but you are also not a mainstream environmentalist, then. Seriously, you all cannot have missed the endless use of "overpopulation" and "environment" in the same sentence for the last couple of decades.
If you assume that everybody will voluntarily stop at two children if they get enough education and food, I think that's naive. Not just because it's not true for every individual on the planet, but because birth control fails (even when used by people who know how to use it), and a guaranteed two-kid maximum wouldn't happen without sterilization, even if every single person on earth was willing to stop at two.
< Message edited by 3cappuccinosmom -- 11/8/2009 9:52:05 AM >
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/8/2009 7:57:32 PM
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huangshan
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quote:
ORIGINAL: 3cappuccinosmom
quote:
...and immigration...?
And when you've convinced the immigrants that only the poor and stupid have big families?
Why would anyone do that? The point is that no one needs convincing, people just have a natural tendency to have fewer children as society becomes wealthier.
quote:
Practically and emotionally, it doesn't matter to me at all. Philosopically, I do think it is sad when human beings decide they're not worth replacing themselves.
So when someone elects to not have children, you consider that an admission (or belief) of low worth? How do you figure? I'm familiar with several families who elected to adopt in lieu of giving birth and I think it's admirable, charitable, worth emulating. Would you disagree?
I think your analysis is incredibly simplistic. Wrong, even, and insulting to good people. It also indicated a weird concern over genetics. Perhaps one's ideas are all one needs to be proud of. Perhaps one's self-worth isn't always wrapped up in having kids.
quote:
And that is why you cannot have world-wide ZPG without coercion. Not everybody, including not every smart or educated or wealthy person, is interested in a one- or two-child family.
And again, this is simply false. If there are five families, each deciding to have 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 children, that's actually at below replacement level. Not everyone needs to buy into some agenda or government program in order to have a stable and sustainable population. This is also why coercion is not "the logical end of believing that world-wide ZPG is necessary to save the environment". Coercion is simply not necessary.
< Message edited by huangshan -- 11/8/2009 8:05:14 PM >
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/8/2009 8:45:22 PM
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stellaluna
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I'm not sure why anyone assumes overcrowding should be solved by looking at the younger end of the spectrum instead of the older.
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/8/2009 8:58:44 PM
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huangshan
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quote:
ORIGINAL: stellaluna
I'm not sure why anyone assumes overcrowding should be solved by looking at the younger end of the spectrum instead of the older.
I don't understand what this is referring to.
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/8/2009 9:13:24 PM
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stellaluna
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preventing pregnancy/abortion v. stopping the practice of trying to keep one alive indefinitely
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RE: Population Control in an Aging Society - 11/8/2009 10:34:19 PM
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huangshan
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quote:
ORIGINAL: stellaluna
preventing pregnancy/abortion v. stopping the practice of trying to keep one alive indefinitely
Oh.
Because everyone dies eventually, but not everyone necessarily will have Catholic-sized families.
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